Masterful McCoy is the one to break old guard grip

HIS week began, depressingly, with the disappointment of Binocular, his favourite horse, being scatched from the Champion Hurdle.

It can end, however, with AP McCoy – a miracle-maker in the saddle – winning jump racing’s ‘blue riband’ contest, the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, on the unheralded Kempes.

This is not just the judgment of a McCoy devotee who has followed, and chronicled, his record-breaking career since he won the 1997 Gold Cup on the unrated Mr Mulligan when his raw determination made up for a lack of finesse – and when his tactics revolved around leading from the front.

It is also what the statistics say as 14 equine warriors prepare to go to post for the most open – and unpredictable – Gold Cup in a generation.

There is only one certainty today. The winner will be obvious afterwards. It is that kind of race as the ‘golden generation’ – Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman – take on a younger cavalry headed by Long Run, the King George hero.

Yet the form book – and the small-print contains countless clues – suggests that the four principals are potentially vulnerable to a horse, an unfashionable outsider with a moderate reputation, that performs on the day.

Having won last year’s Grand National in the iconic green and yellow striped silks of JP McManus, McCoy – the champion jockey for the last 15 years – said one of his next objectives was to deliver a first Gold Cup for his boss whom he describes as “racing’s greatest supporter”.

Kempes, from the yard of this week’s Champion Hurdle-winning trainer Willie Mullins, is that horse, and McCoy is in the mood to end a challenging week on a personal high judging by the BBC Sports Personality of the Year’s steel-faced demeanour and quiet confidence.

His mount, a 10-1 chance, has Grade One form – a key requisite – after backing up last April’s victory in the Growise Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown with Leopardstown’s Hennessy Gold Cup last month, a race in which David Casey deputised for McCoy.

His eight years of age means he is approaching his optimum, another plus as Mullins looks for his first Gold Cup, and Kempes arrives at Cheltenham on the back of three runs – a final reason to be optimistic, given that the four market leaders have appeared just six times between them this season.

Age, and question-marks about their form, also count against each of the main players.

No 11-year-old has won since Mandarin in 1962, a trend that goes against stablemates Kauto Star and Denman as they attempt to regain their crowns – though the forecast rain will be welcomed by the latter.